FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

333.73 – 550.43

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

558 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 163.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 712.4 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 162.85Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 146.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 23.9Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 648.4 ±9.8

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 210.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 136.72Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 203.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 973, 294, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 973, 294, 3925

Auto

77.0 24%

Teleop

184.7 57%

Endgame

62.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1388, 696, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

550.4 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1388, 696, 3255

Auto

102.3 19%

Teleop

271.3 52%

Endgame

151.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 3.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score333.7pts

Blue projected score550.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216.7
Score range: 275–609
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1006 vs event baseline 329.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

712.4Season APEX648.4

77Auto102.3

184.7Teleop271.3

62.6Endgame151.1

100Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	68
teleop	319	232
endgame	152	143
foul	0	5
total	558	448

Result

Final score

558 – 448

Prediction missed · off by 163.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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