FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 112

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

482.57 – 270.66

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

655 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 914.4 ±9.3

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 28.92Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 354.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 98.87Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.2 ±9.8

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 150.01Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 60.9Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 59.75Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 589, 4414, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

482.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 589, 4414, 3128

Auto

108.8 23%

Teleop

271.8 57%

Endgame

96.0 20%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 6220, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 6220, 1138

Auto

61.9 23%

Teleop

141.1 53%

Endgame

64.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score482.6pts

Blue projected score270.7pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.9
Score range: 212–542
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 943 vs event baseline 328.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

914.4Season APEX468.2

108.8Auto61.9

271.8Teleop141.1

96Endgame64.8

130Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	127	60
teleop	391	153
endgame	122	70
foul	15	5
total	655	288

Result

Final score

655 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 94.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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