FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 111

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

539.8 – 238.41

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.9 ±9.8

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 119.18Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 160.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 259.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.7 ±10.4

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 123.17Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 92.43Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 22.81Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9452, 5474, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

539.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 5474, 1538

Auto

50.6 9%

Teleop

333.6 62%

Endgame

151.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4123, 5137, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4123, 5137, 3309

Auto

61.4 26%

Teleop

121.1 51%

Endgame

56.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.05 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score539.8pts

Blue projected score238.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 301.4
Score range: 179–599
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 328.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.9Season APEX374.7

50.6Auto61.4

333.6Teleop121.1

151Endgame56.7

67Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	31
teleop	250	149
endgame	118	69
foul	0	10
total	456	259

Result

Final score

456 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 52.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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