FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 110

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.38 – 196.34

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.4 ±9.3

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 139.24Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -2.3Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 126.44Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±10.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 77.28Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 74.74Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 44.32Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7415, 10586, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7415, 10586, 4201

Auto

69.1 28%

Teleop

120.2 49%

Endgame

55.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 4738, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3749, 4738, 4999

Auto

33.1 16%

Teleop

118.3 58%

Endgame

52.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score263.4pts

Blue projected score196.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67
Score range: 137–322
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 328.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.4Season APEX330.9

69.1Auto33.1

120.2Teleop118.3

55.4Endgame52.2

53Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	31
teleop	156	95
endgame	106	58
foul	0	0
total	375	184

Result

Final score

375 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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