FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.42 – 288

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

442 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±9.8

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 109.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 118.57Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 147.71Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 600.4 ±9.3

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 94.57Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 134Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 59.43Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1388, 2659, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1388, 2659, 2984

Auto

58.9 17%

Teleop

197.1 56%

Endgame

95.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 3255, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

288 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11024, 3255, 5136

Auto

56.3 20%

Teleop

148.0 52%

Endgame

79.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.57 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score375.4pts

Blue projected score288pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 227–436
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 744 vs event baseline 339.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.1Season APEX600.4

58.9Auto56.3

197.1Teleop148

95.1Endgame79.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	63
teleop	209	129
endgame	111	105
foul	5	5
total	442	302

Result

Final score

442 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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