FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 109

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.32 – 280.84

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 568.5 ±9.8

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 99.4Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 96.82Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 140.1Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±9.8

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 24.87Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 195.41Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 60.56Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 5136, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2637, 5136, 6995

Auto

63.6 19%

Teleop

175.9 52%

Endgame

96.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4079, 2102, 2984

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4079, 2102, 2984

Auto

59.7 22%

Teleop

111.7 42%

Endgame

94.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score336.3pts

Blue projected score280.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 222–395
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 636 vs event baseline 328.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

568.5Season APEX431.8

63.6Auto59.7

175.9Teleop111.7

96.5Endgame94.7

100Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	52
teleop	229	84
endgame	108	75
foul	15	10
total	415	221

Result

Final score

415 – 221

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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