FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 108

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.7 – 249.63

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 355

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 631.2 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 153.3Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 98.12Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 98.28Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 460.8 ±9.8

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 27.43Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 117.03Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 105.17Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 5199, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4322, 5199, 3408

Auto

78.3 23%

Teleop

204.5 60%

Endgame

57.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 968, 4, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 968, 4, 687

Auto

38.0 16%

Teleop

126.3 53%

Endgame

72.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.5 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score349.7pts

Blue projected score249.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.1
Score range: 191–409
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 751 vs event baseline 328.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

631.2Season APEX460.8

78.3Auto38

204.5Teleop126.3

57Endgame72.3

106Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	89
teleop	232	166
endgame	43	100
foul	25	0
total	396	355

Result

Final score

396 – 355

Prediction correct · off by 75.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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