FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

345.31 – 228.55

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

323 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 75.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.5 ±10.4

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 115.01Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 109.95Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 120.35Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.8

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 64.91Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 42.23Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 121.41Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 4415, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2710, 4415, 2584

Auto

69.9 21%

Teleop

185.7 55%

Endgame

81.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 5805, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2485, 5805, 9408

Auto

34.3 16%

Teleop

117.9 56%

Endgame

58.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score345.3pts

Blue projected score228.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.8
Score range: 170–404
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 680 vs event baseline 328.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.5Season APEX521.8

69.9Auto34.3

185.7Teleop117.9

81.7Endgame58.2

105Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	63
teleop	173	200
endgame	85	84
foul	10	10
total	323	357

Result

Final score

323 – 357

Prediction missed · off by 75.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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