FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 106

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.84 – 221.7

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

657 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.5 ±9.8

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 222.16Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 197.31Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 73.37Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.3 ±9.8

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 77Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 103.61Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 41.09Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 1388, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.8 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3476, 1388, 6695

Auto

104.6 22%

Teleop

249.1 52%

Endgame

122.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1160, 1148, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1160, 1148, 11024

Auto

16.2 8%

Teleop

143.6 67%

Endgame

56.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3.03 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score492.8pts

Blue projected score221.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 271.1
Score range: 163–552
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 847 vs event baseline 327.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.5Season APEX414.3

104.6Auto16.2

249.1Teleop143.6

122.3Endgame56

115Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	136	36
teleop	386	101
endgame	135	53
foul	0	0
total	657	190

Result

Final score

657 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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