FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 105

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.04 – 358.54

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

237 – 494

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.9 ±9.8

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 111.72Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 127.14Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 30.18Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 711.9 ±9.3

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 158.41Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 44.14Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 155.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3647, 8119, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3647, 8119, 589

Auto

39.4 15%

Teleop

149.0 57%

Endgame

72.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2659, 2404, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2659, 2404, 973

Auto

84.5 24%

Teleop

185.5 52%

Endgame

83.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269pts

Blue projected score358.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.5
Score range: 210–418
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 326.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.9Season APEX711.9

39.4Auto84.5

149Teleop185.5

72.6Endgame83.4

163Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	111
teleop	95	265
endgame	89	118
foul	0	0
total	237	494

Result

Final score

237 – 494

Prediction correct · off by 83.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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