FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

325.33 – 441.88

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

389 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.3 ±9.8

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 159.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 93.65Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 72.34Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593.5 ±9.8

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 142.68Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 120.49Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 178.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5474, 3128, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5474, 3128, 1197

Auto

72.3 24%

Teleop

166.1 55%

Endgame

66.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 696, 9452, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.9 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 696, 9452, 599

Auto

86.6 20%

Teleop

256.8 58%

Endgame

96.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score325.3pts

Blue projected score441.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.5
Score range: 266–501
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 819 vs event baseline 326.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.3Season APEX593.5

72.3Auto86.6

166.1Teleop256.8

66.3Endgame96.7

101Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	72
teleop	190	280
endgame	132	78
foul	0	0
total	389	430

Result

Final score

389 – 430

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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