FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.36 – 149.99

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.7 ±9.3

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 113.89Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 111.48Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 140.99Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.4 ±10.4

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 88.47Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -6.91Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 68.43Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3512, 4123, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3512, 4123, 9084

Auto

71.8 20%

Teleop

192.5 54%

Endgame

91.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5137, 2658, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

150 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5137, 2658, 4419

Auto

55.1 37%

Teleop

56.9 38%

Endgame

38.7 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score366.4pts

Blue projected score150pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 216.4
Score range: 91–425
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 325.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.7Season APEX346.4

71.8Auto55.1

192.5Teleop56.9

91Endgame38.7

81Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	51
teleop	283	131
endgame	107	44
foul	0	0
total	490	226

Result

Final score

490 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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