FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

407.46 – 449.91

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

245 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.9 ±9.8

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 79.13Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 278.13Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 50.2Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 624.5 ±9.8

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 67.74Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 27.98Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 354.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 1538, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6220, 1538, 7157

Auto

65.6 16%

Teleop

224.3 56%

Endgame

108.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 812, 3925, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 812, 3925, 4414

Auto

87.3 20%

Teleop

253.0 58%

Endgame

98.9 23%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score407.5pts

Blue projected score449.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: 348–509
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 686 vs event baseline 325.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.9Season APEX624.5

65.6Auto87.3

224.3Teleop253

108.9Endgame98.9

99Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	111
teleop	94	209
endgame	120	96
foul	5	25
total	245	441

Result

Final score

245 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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