FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.68 – 277.34

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.2 ±9.8

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 118.81Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 123.76Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 100.11Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.8 ±9.8

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 152.28Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 45.83Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 79.23Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2710, 9408, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2710, 9408, 5136

Auto

44.6 13%

Teleop

205.9 62%

Endgame

83.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4322, 5805, 4738

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4322, 5805, 4738

Auto

42.9 16%

Teleop

140.3 53%

Endgame

81.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score342.7pts

Blue projected score277.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.3
Score range: 218–402
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 601 vs event baseline 325.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.2Season APEX475.8

44.6Auto42.9

205.9Teleop140.3

83.3Endgame81.4

111Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	93
teleop	143	115
endgame	68	65
foul	0	0
total	328	273

Result

Final score

328 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 9.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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