FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.28 – 172.28

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 123.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.6 ±9.8

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX -Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX -Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX -Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 645.9 ±9.8

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX -Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX -Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX -Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4123, 2102, 812

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4123, 2102, 812

Auto

51.7 30%

Teleop

86.1 50%

Endgame

34.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 4738, 589

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 973, 4738, 589

Auto

51.7 30%

Teleop

86.1 50%

Endgame

34.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score172.3pts

Blue projected score172.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 110–234
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 344.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.6Season APEX645.9

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	16
teleop	163	180
endgame	59	99
foul	30	0
total	296	295

Result

Final score

296 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 123.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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