FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

363.61 – 195.97

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

469 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 120.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.1 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 188.53Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 65.25Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 109.83Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.2 ±9.3

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 31.24Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 143.28Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 21.45Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 4419, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3255, 4419, 5199

Auto

73.6 20%

Teleop

193.2 52%

Endgame

106.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11024, 4322, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11024, 4322, 4079

Auto

60.3 29%

Teleop

90.8 44%

Endgame

54.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score363.6pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.6
Score range: 134–426
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 800 vs event baseline 343.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.1Season APEX442.2

73.6Auto60.3

193.2Teleop90.8

106Endgame54.4

102Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	62
teleop	258	149
endgame	116	105
foul	0	15
total	469	331

Result

Final score

469 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 120.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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