FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

697.56 – 484.37

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

624 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 110 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1001 ±8.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 358.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 111.99Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 227Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 138.63Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 172.13Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 173.61Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3512, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

697.6 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 3512, 3476

Auto

161.7 23%

Teleop

364.2 53%

Endgame

162.8 24%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 7415, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3128, 7415, 9084

Auto

105.5 22%

Teleop

240.6 51%

Endgame

123.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score697.6pts

Blue projected score484.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 213.2
Score range: 422–760
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 962 vs event baseline 342.8.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1001Season APEX837.2

161.7Auto105.5

364.2Teleop240.6

162.8Endgame123.6

44Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	151	102
teleop	329	162
endgame	114	69
foul	30	5
total	624	338

Result

Final score

624 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 110 pts

Match videos

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