FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

694.5 – 486.51

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

712 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1001 ±8.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 357.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 110.73Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 226.18Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 174.3Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 172.9Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 139.31Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 3512, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

694.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 3512, 3476

Auto

167.8 24%

Teleop

364.3 53%

Endgame

157.8 23%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 7415, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

486.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 7415, 3128

Auto

112.7 24%

Teleop

238.3 51%

Endgame

119.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.9 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score694.5pts

Blue projected score486.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 208
Score range: 426–756
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1181 vs event baseline 340.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1001Season APEX837.2

167.8Auto112.7

364.3Teleop238.3

157.8Endgame119.5

58Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	50
teleop	364	258
endgame	188	156
foul	30	5
total	712	469

Result

Final score

712 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Match videos

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