Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.27 – 165.39

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±10.4

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 65.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 50.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 46.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.3 ±10.5

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 40.44Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 65.84Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 59.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 7137, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 7137, 6662

Auto

27.9 19%

Teleop

78.9 53%

Endgame

43.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 751, 2073, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 751, 2073, 1072

Auto

20.4 14%

Teleop

77.2 52%

Endgame

51.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.3pts

Blue projected score165.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 129–198
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 185.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.5Season APEX510.3

27.9Auto20.4

78.9Teleop77.2

43.3Endgame51.7

62Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	35
teleop	120	58
endgame	72	41
foul	15	0
total	234	134

Result

Final score

234 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 51.6 pts

Match videos

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