Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.74 – 257.32

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

274 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.2 ±10.5

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 17.2Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 123.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 139.7Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.9 ±10.5

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 15.62Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 108.33Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 133.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1280, 846, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1280, 846, 670

Auto

50.1 18%

Teleop

175.7 64%

Endgame

49.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 4698, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 4698, 3257

Auto

58.3 24%

Teleop

125.2 51%

Endgame

64.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.7pts

Blue projected score257.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 224–314
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 183.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.2Season APEX508.9

50.1Auto58.3

175.7Teleop125.2

49.2Endgame64

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	69
teleop	126	182
endgame	109	78
foul	5	5
total	274	334

Result

Final score

274 – 334

Prediction missed · off by 41.7 pts

Match videos

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