Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
142.92 – 182.15
38%62%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
194 – 136
Prediction missed · off by 48.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±11.6
Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 39.54Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 84.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 18.48Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.9 ±11
Season APEX 151Event APEX 99.36Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 25.91Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 56.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1138, 1857, 9038
52
/ 100 compatProjected
142.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 1138, 1857, 9038
Auto
27.3 22%
Teleop
56.1 45%
Endgame
41.3 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2135, 5274, 3598
63
/ 100 compatProjected
182.2 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2135, 5274, 3598
Auto
37.4 21%
Teleop
96.0 54%
Endgame
42.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.88
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score142.9pts
Blue projected score182.2pts
Red win probability38%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -39.2
- Score range
- 110–215
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
310.6Season APEX346.9
27.3Auto37.4
56.1Teleop96
41.3Endgame42.8
38Consistency16
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 34 |
| teleop | 79 | 77 |
| endgame | 33 | 25 |
| foul | 50 | 0 |
| total | 194 | 136 |
Result
Final score
194 – 136
Prediction missed · off by 48.6 pts
Match videos
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