Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
230 – 168.3
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
367 – 192
Prediction correct · off by 80.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.9 ±10.5
Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 6.09Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 283Event APEX 100Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 123.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 40.29Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 315Event APEX 66.01Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 62Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6884, 4698, 3257
74
/ 100 compatProjected
230 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 6884, 4698, 3257
Auto
49.5 22%
Teleop
106.9 48%
Endgame
65.7 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 751, 2073, 1072
54
/ 100 compatProjected
168.3 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 751, 2073, 1072
Auto
14.5 9%
Teleop
86.5 53%
Endgame
62.6 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 8%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.25
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score230pts
Blue projected score168.3pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 61.7
- Score range
- 136–262
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
508.9Season APEX510.3
49.5Auto14.5
106.9Teleop86.5
65.7Endgame62.6
11Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 95 | 40 |
| teleop | 199 | 65 |
| endgame | 53 | 27 |
| foul | 20 | 60 |
| total | 367 | 192 |
Result
Final score
367 – 192
Prediction correct · off by 80.4 pts
Match videos
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