Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

674.56 – 142.16

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

669 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 851.1 ±9.3

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 48Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 394.69Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 231.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±11.6

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 83.46Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 19.55Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2204, 1678, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

674.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 1678, 5940

Auto

130.8 20%

Teleop

369.2 56%

Endgame

164.1 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 1857, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 1857, 9038

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

54.4 45%

Endgame

39.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score674.6pts

Blue projected score142.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 532.4
Score range: 110–707
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 825 vs event baseline 176.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

851.1Season APEX310.6

130.8Auto27.3

369.2Teleop54.4

164.1Endgame39.4

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	165	32
teleop	356	69
endgame	138	45
foul	10	10
total	669	156

Result

Final score

669 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Match videos

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