Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.99 – 174.92

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±11.6

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 46.55Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 88.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 25.45Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±10.4

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 70.11Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 54.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 50.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1138, 1857, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

161 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 1857, 9038

Auto

27.1 20%

Teleop

64.1 48%

Endgame

41.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9400, 7137, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 7137, 6662

Auto

28.0 17%

Teleop

85.0 53%

Endgame

47.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161pts

Blue projected score174.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.9
Score range: 127–209
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 186.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.6Season APEX383.5

27.1Auto28

64.1Teleop85

41.4Endgame47.6

49Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	23
teleop	48	75
endgame	44	26
foul	0	5
total	119	129

Result

Final score

119 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Match videos

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