Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

681.39 – 272.28

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

579 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 851.1 ±9.3

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 49.16Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 397.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 234.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.9 ±10.5

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 20.51Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 111.45Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 140.32Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2204, 1678, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

681.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2204, 1678, 5940

Auto

139.6 21%

Teleop

373.3 56%

Endgame

157.3 23%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 4698, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 4698, 3257

Auto

60.3 23%

Teleop

135.2 52%

Endgame

65.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score681.4pts

Blue projected score272.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 409.1
Score range: 239–714
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 845 vs event baseline 184.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

851.1Season APEX508.9

139.6Auto60.3

373.3Teleop135.2

157.3Endgame65.7

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	91
teleop	320	99
endgame	131	61
foul	10	15
total	579	266

Result

Final score

579 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 54.3 pts

Match videos

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