Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.83 – 150.59

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 172.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±11.2

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 32.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 123.37Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 138.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±11.6

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 42.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 86.76Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 21.06Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9111, 846, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 846, 670

Auto

49.3 17%

Teleop

181.0 62%

Endgame

59.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 1857, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 1857, 9038

Auto

28.1 22%

Teleop

59.5 47%

Endgame

39.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.8pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.2
Score range: 118–328
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 185.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

480.7Season APEX310.6

49.3Auto28.1

181Teleop59.5

59.7Endgame39.4

3Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	22
teleop	179	91
endgame	42	52
foul	5	35
total	0	200

Result

Final score

0 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 172.1 pts

Match videos

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