Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.01 – 96.31

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 87.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.8 ±13.3

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 21.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 18.57Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 144.57Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.1 ±12.2

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 23.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 54Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 18.34Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2141, 10212, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

185 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 10212, 11296

Auto

43.8 24%

Teleop

100.6 55%

Endgame

38.9 21%

Strengths

· 11296 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 9038, 199

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 9038, 199

Auto

30.0 32%

Teleop

48.0 51%

Endgame

15.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.7
Score range: 68–213
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.8Season APEX264.1

43.8Auto30

100.6Teleop48

38.9Endgame15.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	9	62
endgame	7	26
foul	0	5
total	25	112

Result

Final score

25 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 87.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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