Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.93 – 134.05

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 66.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 778.2 ±9.3

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 40.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 55.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 36.5Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.9 ±12.8

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 46.33Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 40.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 47.43Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9400, 5940, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 5940, 4698

Auto

31.4 25%

Teleop

64.1 51%

Endgame

29.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11274, 9125, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11274, 9125, 2135

Auto

19.6 15%

Teleop

69.8 54%

Endgame

39.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.9pts

Blue projected score134.1pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 105–161
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

778.2Season APEX280.9

31.4Auto19.6

64.1Teleop69.8

29.7Endgame39.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	18
teleop	160	78
endgame	82	27
foul	0	25
total	251	148

Result

Final score

251 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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