Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
74.8 – 116.17
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
123 – 105
Prediction missed · off by 29.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.7
Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 3.58Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 36.22Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 35Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.2 ±11.1
Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 21.05Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 315Event APEX 66.77Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 52Event APEX 28.35Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2288, 751, 3189
40
/ 100 compatProjected
74.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2288, 751, 3189
Auto
18.4 26%
Teleop
31.6 45%
Endgame
19.7 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9038, 2073, 2141
42
/ 100 compatProjected
116.2 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 9038, 2073, 2141
Auto
22.5 19%
Teleop
44.1 37%
Endgame
52.8 44%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 9%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.81
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score74.8pts
Blue projected score116.2pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.4
- Score range
- 44–147
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
214.8Season APEX441.2
18.4Auto22.5
31.6Teleop44.1
19.7Endgame52.8
0Consistency29
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 29 |
| teleop | 41 | 43 |
| endgame | 31 | 13 |
| foul | 30 | 20 |
| total | 123 | 105 |
Result
Final score
123 – 105
Prediction missed · off by 29.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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