Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.21 – 26.39

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.4 ±13.3

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 1Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 32.97Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.24Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.8 ±13.9

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 18.84Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -4.62Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 12.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5430, 5274, 6981

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 5274, 6981

Auto

8.5 19%

Teleop

22.5 50%

Endgame

14.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9125, 3482, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9125, 3482, 10212

Auto

8.6 52%

Teleop

2.2 13%

Endgame

5.7 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.2pts

Blue projected score26.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: -5–74
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 174.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.4Season APEX176.8

8.5Auto8.6

22.5Teleop2.2

14Endgame5.7

12Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	12
teleop	19	20
endgame	16	14
foul	0	0
total	45	46

Result

Final score

45 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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