Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.44 – 176.67

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.1 ±12.2

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 35.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 129.21Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 33.75Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.2 ±10.5

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 60.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 8.82Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 107.14Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 199, 670, 751

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 199, 670, 751

Auto

45.7 23%

Teleop

114.0 57%

Endgame

38.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3598, 6884, 4698

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3598, 6884, 4698

Auto

31.2 17%

Teleop

91.2 51%

Endgame

57.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.4pts

Blue projected score176.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 145–230
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 176.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.1Season APEX453.2

45.7Auto31.2

114Teleop91.2

38.8Endgame57.2

26Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	37
teleop	155	42
endgame	35	13
foul	5	20
total	235	112

Result

Final score

235 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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