Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

518.65 – 249.37

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635 ±11.2

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 29.13Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 77.83Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 411.69Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±11.7

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 17.35Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 223.61Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 8.41Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10212, 9400, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

518.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10212, 9400, 1678

Auto

105.6 21%

Teleop

275.9 54%

Endgame

126.7 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9125, 5940, 6619

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9125, 5940, 6619

Auto

40.2 17%

Teleop

135.6 58%

Endgame

59.9 25%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score518.7pts

Blue projected score249.4pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269.3
Score range: 218–550
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635Season APEX529.7

105.6Auto40.2

275.9Teleop135.6

126.7Endgame59.9

47Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	64
teleop	155	127
endgame	57	48
foul	5	30
total	337	269

Result

Final score

337 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 100.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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