Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.56 – 191.37

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.9 ±11

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 26.35Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 111.78Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 9.43Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.9 ±11.7

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 74.61Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 99.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 16.99Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9038, 2135, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9038, 2135, 4135

Auto

35.6 26%

Teleop

70.6 52%

Endgame

28.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 846, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 846, 11296

Auto

33.0 18%

Teleop

90.6 51%

Endgame

55.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score191.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 117–222
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 173.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.9Season APEX394.9

35.6Auto33

70.6Teleop90.6

28.4Endgame55.3

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	60
teleop	33	188
endgame	32	53
foul	0	0
total	98	301

Result

Final score

98 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 79.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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