Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

448.4 – 200.01

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

501 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.2 ±12.4

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 3.02Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 405.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 40.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410 ±11.2

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 15.49Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 86.74Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 97.78Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2288, 1678, 9111

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2288, 1678, 9111

Auto

102.5 23%

Teleop

245.0 55%

Endgame

98.1 22%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10212, 846, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10212, 846, 2135

Auto

38.3 21%

Teleop

109.9 59%

Endgame

37.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score448.4pts

Blue projected score200pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 248.4
Score range: 169–479
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 858 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.2Season APEX410

102.5Auto38.3

245Teleop109.9

98.1Endgame37.5

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	58
teleop	273	169
endgame	106	120
foul	10	10
total	501	357

Result

Final score

501 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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