Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.88 – 122.94

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401 ±11.7

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 63.22Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 19.96Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 27.7Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.9 ±12.7

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX -0.8Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 37.67Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 86.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2073, 1280, 5728

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2073, 1280, 5728

Auto

17.3 17%

Teleop

48.1 48%

Endgame

34.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3482, 3189, 1857

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3482, 3189, 1857

Auto

19.4 19%

Teleop

46.1 45%

Endgame

37.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score122.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.1
Score range: 77–157
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401Season APEX253.9

17.3Auto19.4

48.1Teleop46.1

34.1Endgame37.2

47Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	24	43
endgame	20	33
foul	0	0
total	68	87

Result

Final score

68 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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