Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

268.45 – 47.79

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.8 ±10.5

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 211.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 31.55Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 25.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±13.3

9111Pyro Mechanics

Season APEX 100Event APEX 44.07Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 7.9Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX -4.18Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 2141, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5940, 2141, 1138

Auto

52.9 21%

Teleop

137.6 54%

Endgame

65.3 26%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9111, 6619, 5430

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9111, 6619, 5430

Auto

14.9 36%

Teleop

16.6 40%

Endgame

10.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score268.5pts

Blue projected score47.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.7
Score range: 17–299
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 345 vs event baseline 174.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.8Season APEX246.5

52.9Auto14.9

137.6Teleop16.6

65.3Endgame10.2

20Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	12
teleop	141	17
endgame	95	1
foul	0	0
total	315	30

Result

Final score

315 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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