Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.66 – 116.86

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 272.6 ±12.7

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 25.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 6.12Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 81.5Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.6 ±12.4

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 7.04Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 95.31Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 14.51Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5274, 2288, 1857

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5274, 2288, 1857

Auto

18.3 19%

Teleop

44.5 47%

Endgame

32.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6981, 4698, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6981, 4698, 11296

Auto

15.9 13%

Teleop

69.9 57%

Endgame

36.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.2
Score range: 81–149
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 175.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

272.6Season APEX394.6

18.3Auto15.9

44.5Teleop69.9

32.8Endgame36.5

60Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	36	71
endgame	28	65
foul	5	0
total	90	170

Result

Final score

90 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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