Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.48 – 519.33

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.2 ±10.4

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 66.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 58.82Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 31.41Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±11.2

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 76.79Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 26.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 416.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6662, 3598, 701

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 3598, 701

Auto

24.3 17%

Teleop

88.0 62%

Endgame

30.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1072, 9125, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

519.3 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1072, 9125, 1678

Auto

99.7 19%

Teleop

284.4 56%

Endgame

127.9 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.5pts

Blue projected score519.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -362.8
Score range: 125–550
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 173.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.2Season APEX628.1

24.3Auto99.7

88Teleop284.4

30.3Endgame127.9

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	88
teleop	47	239
endgame	30	94
foul	0	0
total	102	421

Result

Final score

102 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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