Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.89 – 155.01

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.4 ±13.3

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 5.42Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 40.56Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 36.91Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±12.8

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 96.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 15.01Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 43.24Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6884, 11274, 5728

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 11274, 5728

Auto

26.6 35%

Teleop

31.6 41%

Endgame

18.3 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3257, 10212, 199

/ 100 compat

Projected

155 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 10212, 199

Auto

42.8 28%

Teleop

75.4 48%

Endgame

37.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.9pts

Blue projected score155pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.1
Score range: 51–187
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 175.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.4Season APEX319.8

26.6Auto42.8

31.6Teleop75.4

18.3Endgame37.4

113Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	64
teleop	8	72
endgame	21	15
foul	5	15
total	54	166

Result

Final score

54 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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