Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.08 – 158.19

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

197 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.7 ±10.5

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 6.87Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 43.04Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 55.17Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.3 ±11

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 31.36Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 36.42Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 90.41Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4135, 2073, 5458

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 2073, 5458

Auto

29.7 27%

Teleop

44.5 40%

Endgame

35.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 751, 2204, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 751, 2204, 2135

Auto

22.3 14%

Teleop

86.7 56%

Endgame

47.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score158.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.1
Score range: 74–189
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 174.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.7Season APEX314.3

29.7Auto22.3

44.5Teleop86.7

35.8Endgame47.1

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	36
teleop	105	84
endgame	55	52
foul	5	25
total	197	197

Result

Final score

197 – 197

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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