Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

144.05 – 268.11

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±12.2

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 56.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 74.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 12.99Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.1 ±11.2

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -2.93Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 201.53Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 69.51Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3598, 1857, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3598, 1857, 10212

Auto

25.6 20%

Teleop

66.7 53%

Endgame

34.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2288, 5940, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2288, 5940, 1072

Auto

53.5 21%

Teleop

130.6 52%

Endgame

65.8 26%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.1pts

Blue projected score268.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.1
Score range: 113–299
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.6Season APEX545.1

25.6Auto53.5

66.7Teleop130.6

34Endgame65.8

48Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	36
teleop	76	213
endgame	61	90
foul	10	5
total	173	344

Result

Final score

173 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 52.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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