Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.73 – 80.45

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±11

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 48.56Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 124.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 24.52Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191 ±12.7

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 40.17Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 24Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 16.28Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6662, 670, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 670, 9038

Auto

38.5 19%

Teleop

123.5 61%

Endgame

40.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 751, 5274, 10212

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 751, 5274, 10212

Auto

18.4 26%

Teleop

29.4 42%

Endgame

22.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.7pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.3
Score range: 46–232
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.6Season APEX191

38.5Auto18.4

123.5Teleop29.4

40.4Endgame22.7

30Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	12
teleop	120	41
endgame	23	12
foul	0	0
total	189	65

Result

Final score

189 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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