Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.88 – 132.75

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.5 ±11

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 140.15Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 56.18Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 88.55Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300 ±11

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 52.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 22.86Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 57.08Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 670, 5458, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 670, 5458, 2135

Auto

66.4 24%

Teleop

159.0 58%

Endgame

48.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9400, 2141, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9400, 2141, 6662

Auto

28.6 21%

Teleop

65.6 49%

Endgame

41.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score284.9pts

Blue projected score132.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.1
Score range: 102–316
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 532 vs event baseline 170.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.5Season APEX300

66.4Auto28.6

159Teleop65.6

48.8Endgame41

50Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	42
teleop	173	127
endgame	61	69
foul	0	5
total	289	243

Result

Final score

289 – 243

Prediction correct · off by 57.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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