Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.32 – 128.96

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.6 ±11.7

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 77.07Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 21.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 31.2Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.5 ±11.7

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 102.41Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 1.34Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 25.21Rank 23Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1072, 11296, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1072, 11296, 1138

Auto

26.2 25%

Teleop

49.3 48%

Endgame

27.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 846, 3482, 751

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 3482, 751

Auto

15.6 12%

Teleop

79.0 61%

Endgame

33.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score129pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.4
Score range: 98–160
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.6Season APEX286.5

26.2Auto15.6

49.3Teleop79

27.3Endgame33.9

16Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	62	35
endgame	30	37
foul	0	0
total	118	87

Result

Final score

118 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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