Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.87 – 150.54

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.5 ±12.8

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 17.79Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11274Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 51.04Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 33.04Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±12.2

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 81.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 51.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 17.45Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10212, 11274, 2204

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10212, 11274, 2204

Auto

25.1 27%

Teleop

49.4 54%

Endgame

17.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 701, 9125

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 701, 9125

Auto

10.1 8%

Teleop

77.0 62%

Endgame

37.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.9pts

Blue projected score150.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.7
Score range: 71–182
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.5Season APEX299

25.1Auto10.1

49.4Teleop77

17.5Endgame37.4

54Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	33	32
endgame	25	27
foul	15	45
total	93	121

Result

Final score

93 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 19.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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