Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.31 – 247.02

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

529 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584.2 ±11.2

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 390.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -7.21Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 35.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±11.7

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 203.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 29.3Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 14.22Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 6981, 7137

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1678, 6981, 7137

Auto

88.1 21%

Teleop

222.0 54%

Endgame

101.6 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5940, 5728, 5274

/ 100 compat

Projected

247 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5940, 5728, 5274

Auto

43.4 17%

Teleop

148.7 60%

Endgame

57.7 23%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score419.3pts

Blue projected score247pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.3
Score range: 217–449
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 831 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584.2Season APEX454.4

88.1Auto43.4

222Teleop148.7

101.6Endgame57.7

117Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	49
teleop	302	149
endgame	105	74
foul	0	30
total	529	302

Result

Final score

529 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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