Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.4 – 180.76

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.3 ±11.6

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 11.92Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 74.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 2.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.1 ±11.2

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 54.33Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

199Deep Blue

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 59.26Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 67.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1280, 3257, 2141

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1280, 3257, 2141

Auto

38.9 46%

Teleop

36.3 43%

Endgame

9.4 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2073, 199, 6662

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2073, 199, 6662

Auto

20.4 11%

Teleop

106.1 56%

Endgame

64.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score180.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.4
Score range: 59–211
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.3Season APEX480.1

38.9Auto20.4

36.3Teleop106.1

9.4Endgame64.1

60Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	33
teleop	87	41
endgame	63	33
foul	0	0
total	215	107

Result

Final score

215 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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