Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.76 – 118.48

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.5 ±10.5

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 102.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9400BagelBytes

Season APEX 163.1Event APEX 47.06Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 11.41Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.4 ±9.8

4698Raider Robotics

Season APEX 283Event APEX 86.82Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 27.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 3.76Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 846, 9400, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 846, 9400, 9038

Auto

31.8 21%

Teleop

89.8 59%

Endgame

30.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4698, 1138, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4698, 1138, 4135

Auto

26.8 26%

Teleop

41.0 40%

Endgame

34.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score118.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.3
Score range: 88–191
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 167.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.5Season APEX495.4

31.8Auto26.8

89.8Teleop41

30.9Endgame34.7

106Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	38
teleop	90	68
endgame	53	32
foul	15	5
total	192	143

Result

Final score

192 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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