Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.75 – 182.45

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.8 ±11.2

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 4.43Rank 19Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 2.87Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 219.45Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342 ±11

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 98.67Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 23.97Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 59.81Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4135, 5430, 5940

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 5430, 5940

Auto

54.5 25%

Teleop

118.3 53%

Endgame

49.1 22%

Strengths

· 5940 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2135, 6884, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2135, 6884, 1072

Auto

33.4 20%

Teleop

83.8 50%

Endgame

49.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.8pts

Blue projected score182.5pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.3
Score range: 148–261
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.8Season APEX342

54.5Auto33.4

118.3Teleop83.8

49.1Endgame49.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	24
teleop	96	79
endgame	23	63
foul	5	0
total	193	166

Result

Final score

193 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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