Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.9 – 118.13

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 12

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.3 ±12.1

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 80.57Rank 17Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 7.67Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9038SF UNITY

Season APEX 74.2Event APEX 2.66Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.5 ±12.2

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 38.07Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2204Rambots

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 57.57Rank 26Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1280Ragin' C-Biscuits

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 22.49Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5458, 6884, 9038

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 6884, 9038

Auto

19.7 19%

Teleop

44.2 43%

Endgame

39.7 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9125, 2204, 1280

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9125, 2204, 1280

Auto

6.0 6%

Teleop

75.3 70%

Endgame

26.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.9pts

Blue projected score118.1pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.2
Score range: 60–149
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.3Season APEX225.5

19.7Auto6

44.2Teleop75.3

39.7Endgame26.1

131Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	12
teleop	40	0
endgame	26	0
foul	10	0
total	107	12

Result

Final score

107 – 12

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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